![]() ![]() Angela Stent at Georgetown University said Ukraine needs to advance on the battlefield to maintain the strong level of political and military support it's receiving from the West. Ukraine's offensive comes with big risks. Ukraine needs to demonstrate in this phase of the war that it's still capable of breaking through Russian lines," he added. "I think that Russian forces have to be seen to be decisively beaten in this operation. "It may require multiple offensives on multiple fronts and will likely be conducted over the period of several months rather than days or weeks," Kofman said. But he said it will almost certainly be more challenging than the one last fall that drove Russian troops out of substantial areas in the northeast and the south. government-funded think tank, believes a Ukrainian offensive can succeed. Michael Kofman, who's at the Center for Naval Analyses, a U.S. But there's an almost universal belief Ukraine is responsible, and this is a way of keeping Russia off-balance in advance of the offensive. Ukraine is intentionally vague about attacks inside Russia, neither confirming nor denying involvement. This includes the pair of drones that hit the Kremlin in Moscow earlier this month, causing only minor physical damage to the domed roof of a building, but delivering a psychological jolt to the Russians. Some analysts say the initial stages of the offensive could already be underway, a reference to a spate of surprise, relatively small attacks inside Russia. Ukrainian political and military leaders are repeatedly asked this question, and they have a pat response: "soon." Satellite photos show the Russians digging fresh trenches to defend possible Ukrainian approaches to Crimea, and Russia has reportedly been sending in additional troops to the region.ĪP Ukrainian soldiers ride atop an armored personnel carrier in Ukraine's eastern region of Luhansk on Sunday.įor all the public chatter about the offensive, Ukraine has kept secret the time it plans to launch the operation in earnest. ![]() Meanwhile, this lengthy Ukrainian buildup has given Russia time to reinforce vulnerable spots in the south and east, where Ukraine is most likely to attack. The West also recently pledged to meet Ukraine's long-standing request for F-16 fighter jets, though the Ukrainian air force must still learn how to fly and maintain these American planes, a process expected to take months. and other NATO nations are sending Ukraine tanks, drones and artillery - giving it more firepower than ever - as it plans this offensive. "Probably a more realistic expectation is that the Ukrainians take a good chunk of territory back, something that would be seen in the West as underscoring that Ukraine has the potential to win," he added. This scenario would reverse Russia's most significant military gain over the past year, the creation of a land bridge connecting Russian troops in eastern Ukraine - the Donbas region - to Russian forces in the south - in Crimea.īut Pifer acknowledges this is pretty optimistic. ambassador to Ukraine who's now at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation That would be a huge blow to Moscow," said Steven Pifer, a former U.S. 23 of last year before this massive Russian invasion began. "In the best case, the Ukrainians really liberate a lot of territory, perhaps even pushing the Russians back to the line on Feb. This has created a wide range of expectations. But Ukraine's planned offensive against Russia has been part of a lively public debate for months. Major military operations are normally shrouded in secrecy. ![]()
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